Dimerco says Asia freight stays tight as AI demand extends peak season

Dimerco’s October 2026 freight report says air and ocean capacity across Asia remains tight as AI, semiconductor and holiday shipping demand stretch peak season longer than expected. The report also points to easing Asia-Europe rates through the Suez Canal, even as congestion and blank sailings keep pressure on transpacific lanes.

Why it matters: - Asia freight markets are still under pressure heading into October, which can raise shipping costs, tighten delivery windows and force shippers to switch modes or book earlier than planned. - The split between firmer transpacific pricing and softer Asia-Europe rates shows how route-specific disruptions are reshaping global logistics.

What happened: - Dimerco Express Group released its October 2026 Asia Pacific Freight Report on Oct. 1, saying peak-season pressure is lasting longer than expected. - AI, semiconductor and year-end retail demand are keeping air and ocean volumes elevated. - Typhoon backlogs, port congestion and short-notice capacity cuts are limiting space across several Asian origins. - Asia-Europe ocean rates are moving lower as more services return through the Suez Canal. - The Global Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.3 in August from 52.1 in July, a three-month high and the 13th straight month above 50.

The details: - Output and new orders accelerated in August, and new export orders rose for the first time in four months. - The Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam led regional manufacturing growth, while Japan, Taiwan, the US and India also stayed above the global average. - Taiwan is seeing strong demand for AI servers, semiconductors, high-performance computing equipment and electronic components, keeping air rates to the US and intra-Asia lanes under upward pressure. - South Korea is facing tighter air conditions around Chuseok, with some Southeast Asia services from Incheon needing bookings up to two weeks ahead. - China is showing a mixed picture, with pre-holiday and e-commerce activity tightening some regional routes while US and Europe capacity remains more balanced in several origins. - Dimerco expects clearer tariff direction and persistent ocean congestion could push more cargo into air as Q4 progresses. - Ocean freight is being pressured by lingering typhoon delays, the Mid-Autumn Festival and Golden Week, which are pushing vessel schedule disruptions into October. - Retail and e-commerce inventory building is keeping US imports elevated. - Selective blank sailings are supporting high transpacific utilization and firm-to-rising rates. - Shanghai is expected to remain heavily congested into mid-to-late October, with berthing waits above five days and on-time performance falling sharply. - Yantian is dealing with container availability pressure as intake restrictions limit empty container releases. - Across Southeast Asia, India and Australia, air capacity to the US remains tight from most origins. - Singapore is facing backlog conditions. - Thailand is dealing with capacity reductions and flooding-related delays in Bangkok. - India is entering festival season with both air and ocean space constrained to Europe and the US. - Asia-US rates are rising across several markets. - Vietnam and parts of Malaysia are seeing softer conditions as additional services return via Suez. - Asia-Europe ocean rates are falling as carriers resume Suez transits. - German port strikes and low water levels on the Rhine are still pressuring inland moves. - Transatlantic ocean capacity remains tight, with rising rates. - The US-China trade truce has been extended to Jan. 10, 2027. - Ongoing US Section 301 investigations cover structural excess capacity in several major Asia-Pacific manufacturing economies and sectors. - Dimerco recommends booking early on high-demand corridors, especially from Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan and South Korea. - Ocean shipments should generally be secured one to two weeks ahead for intra-Asia moves and two to three weeks ahead for long-haul routes. - Shippers should keep alternative sailings available around Golden Week, add buffer time for weather and congestion, and consider China-Europe rail where appropriate. - Transit times on major China-Europe rail routes currently range from about 15 to 24 days. - The full October 2026 Asia-Pacific Freight Report is available here .

Between the lines: - The report suggests the usual October slowdown has not arrived because demand is still running ahead of available capacity. - Carriers are using blank sailings and schedule changes to manage utilization, but that also leaves shippers exposed to sudden space shortages. - The Suez return on Asia-Europe lanes is easing rates there, while congestion and disruption keep other corridors tight, so global freight conditions are diverging by trade lane.

What's next: - Shippers should expect tighter booking windows into late October and possibly deeper into Q4 if cargo shifts from ocean to air. - Port congestion, weather and holiday-related disruptions will likely keep schedules unstable in several Asian hubs. - The next key variables are tariff policy, carrier capacity decisions and whether China export flows accelerate as held-back cargo is released.

The bottom line: - Peak season is not ending on schedule, and capacity discipline plus trade-lane disruptions are keeping Asia freight expensive and difficult to book.